Ukraine – China Asymmetric Economic Power Relations: What is to Come after BRI?

Abstract

This article analyzes the dynamics of the Ukraine – China asymmetric power relations in the areas of economic cooperation and infrastructure projects, with said relations having been affected by a gray rhino event, namely the Russo-Ukrainian armed conflict. I argue that both China and Ukraine have adapted to the disruption of transit routes – in particular, the functioning of the Belt and Road Initiative – affected by the hostilities in the territory of Ukraine and international sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus. China, as a more powerful actor, through its active economic diplomacy and diversification strategy, has managed to obtain additional benefits from wartime trade with Ukraine and the reorientation of transit routes through Eurasia. Ukraine, as a less powerful actor, lost its status as a transit state, which constituted its natural geo-economic niche in the 1990s and 2000s; nevertheless, the country’s connectivity with the world for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products are ensured through European Union (EU)-funded Solidarity Lanes and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Although the Ukrainian economy has been functioning in crisis mode during the war, the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine’s transit potential is likely to depend on the extensive EU – China cooperation based on mutually beneficial connectivity programs. The exact nature of Ukraine – China cooperation, however, depends on the timing and results of the Russo-Ukrainian war.