Local political activity in Ukraine: "displaced" middle class and democracy (survey of internally displaced persons)

Abstract

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) increased significantly. By 2024-2025, this figure had exceeded five million. This large social group presents both a humanitarian challenge to the country and an important factor in political transformation and consolidation. After all, IDPs form part of the middle class and civil society, and they have significant potential to drive democratisation. In order to achieve this objective, it is imperative to implement the institutionalisation of political participation (L. Diamond) and democratic consolidation (D. Rustow). The impracticability of conducting elections during the period of legal martial status constitutes a challenge for the competitive political environment and complicates the path to consolidated democracy in Ukraine. In circumstances where elections are not held, the political activity of internally displaced persons can act as a catalyst for the development of Ukrainian democracy. The capacity of IDPs to enhance democratic processes is predicated on their integration, active participation, critical thinking and the exercise of control over power. This predicament, far from being an impediment, is to be regarded as a valuable opportunity. The authors of the article conducted a study of IDPs using the method of individual interviews. Between February and March 2025, more than two hundred internally displaced persons (IDPs) who had been forced to move from the Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv regions, as well as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, to the Odesa, Vinnytsia and Kirovohrad regions due to the war, were interviewed. The results of the study indicate that IDPs are terribly underrepresented in local decision-making processes, have limited legal participation and access to information, and interact little with local self-government bodies. According to the survey results, only 1% of respondents indicated active participation in processes related to IDP activities at the local level. Meanwhile, more than 70% showed apathy and distrust regarding their potential involvement in local processes. It is the contention of the present study that these results indicate a crisis of political subjectivity among IDPs in Ukraine, despite their high level of education, professional experience, and social activity in other areas. In the context of the war, when the majority of men are engaged in defending the country from the invader, the survey revealed that the vast majority of women aged 36-65 with higher education, who are middle class, representatives of intellectual professions and are certainly capable of being active participants in the democratic processes in the country, participated in the survey. Nevertheless, political leadership at the community level is frequently reluctant to include IDPs as equals in democratic processes. Not only do internally displaced persons form a demand for social justice (86.6% support the fight against corruption), they also show a willingness to participate in public life (23.9% try to join local change processes). There is significant demand for state policy reforms: 78.6% of respondents indicated the need to improve support for IDPs. The low level of satisfaction with the state's policies towards this social group indicates the need for this group to be more fully integrated into decision-making processes. The 'displaced' middle class has the potential to drive democratic change, based on the consolidation of democracy and the institutionalisation of political participation.