Using spline-extrapolation in the research of self-similar traffic characteristics

Abstract

The problem of predicting self-similar traffic is considered, the solution of which modeling of self-similar traffic was per- formed using the Simulink software package in MATLAB environment. For the simulation, the queuing system WB/M/1/K with Weibull distribution was used. The use of the spline-extrapolation method made it possible to predict self-similar traffic outside the considered period of time on which packet data transmission is considered. Extrapolation of traffic for short-term and long-term forecasts is considered. Comparison of the results of the prediction of self-similar traffic using various spline functions has shown that the accuracy of the forecast can be improved through the use of cubic splines. A method is proposed for estimating the error of traffic prediction for each variant of traffic forecasting using linear, cubic splines. The results of the research will allow you to perform effective traffic management with the support of quality characteristics, by providing the required parameters of network hardware and software in order to avoid overloads in the network.